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Shock result as FC OSS defy the odds to beat FC Eindhoven 3-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC OSS beat FC Eindhoven 3-4 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.34 xG and FC OSS 0.98 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. FC Eindhoven beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC OSS outscored their 0.98 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.74 / defence 0.89 against FC OSS attack 0.85 / defence 1.07, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 45% | Draw 28% | FC OSS 27%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual FC OSS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 57%, FC OSS 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Eindhoven's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

FC OSS's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.39 PPG, FC OSS 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC OSS win broke the near-deadlock. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC OSS (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.64 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights