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Prediction vindicated as Excelsior edge out FC Eindhoven 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Excelsior beat FC Eindhoven 1-2 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.45 xG and Excelsior 1.84 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.96 / defence 1.30 against Excelsior attack 1.09 / defence 0.91, drawn from 67/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 30% | Draw 23% | Excelsior 47%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 54%, Excelsior 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Eindhoven's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Excelsior's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.22 PPG, Excelsior 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Excelsior win broke the near-deadlock. Excelsior (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights