FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Eindhoven at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Eindhoven host Dordrecht at Jan Louwers Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 11 September 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC Eindhoven have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. FC Eindhoven have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Eindhoven's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Jan Louwers Stadion this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — FC Eindhoven are significantly better at Jan Louwers Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Dordrecht — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Dordrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dordrecht away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC Eindhoven at 1.00 PPG versus Dordrecht's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Eindhoven register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Dordrecht in 100% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, FC Eindhoven have won 3, Dordrecht 1, with 6 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2025, ended 4–3 with FC Eindhoven winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC Eindhoven in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Dordrecht in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 50% versus Dordrecht 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 64% | Dordrecht 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 2.22 xG and Dordrecht 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 0.943 / defence 1.104 | Dordrecht attack 0.905 / defence 1.330. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Dordrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.330 — this is suppressing FC Eindhoven's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 FC Eindhoven games / 42 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 50% | Draw 20% | Dordrecht 30%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 2.00 | Draw 5.00 | Dordrecht 3.33. FC Eindhoven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.92. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.92 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.22 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Eindhoven 60% | Dordrecht 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 11 Sep 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 50% | Draw 20% | Dordrecht 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 73% | xG FC Eindhoven 2.22 / Dordrecht 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 0.943 / def 1.104 | Dordrecht attack 0.905 / def 1.330 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.22
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Dordrecht xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 11 September 2026 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht part of?
FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 50% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 30% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht?
Record (10 meetings): FC Eindhoven 3W | Draws 6 | Dordrecht 1W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Eindhoven's attack at 0.94x the league average against Dordrecht's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 2.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus FC Eindhoven's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
50%
2.00
20%
4.92
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.5%
Draw
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.22
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
3.92
1.70
Dordrecht xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.92
20%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.67
Clean Sheet
18%
5.45
11%
9.21
Win to Nil
9%
10.91
3%
30.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.3 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.22 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.70 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 3.92.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Eindhoven come into this having played 42 games, going 15W 5D 22L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 1.21 PPG from 42 outings (13W 12D 17L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Dordrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Eindhoven on 1.19 PPG, Dordrecht on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
FC Eindhoven's home form reads 9W 3D 9L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 1.19 points per game from 21 outings (6W 7D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.26 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht in 64%.
Last 42 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Early Season
Dordrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 15W 5D 22L in their last 42 games (1.19 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 13W 12D 17L in their last 42 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or Dordrecht away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 1.43 PPG; Dordrecht away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2021, when FC Eindhoven won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Eindhoven's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Eindhoven
6
Draws
1
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 3, Dordrecht have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when Dordrecht 3-4 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 52%, Dordrecht 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for FC Eindhoven and 67% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of FC Eindhoven's games and 71% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of FC Eindhoven's matches and 67% of Dordrecht's.
Do FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.