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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 9, as FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.31 xG and Dordrecht 1.54 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.83 / defence 1.09 against Dordrecht attack 1.02 / defence 0.89, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 32% | Draw 25% | Dordrecht 43%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 56%, Dordrecht 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Eindhoven's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Dordrecht's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights