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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Den Bosch cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC Eindhoven.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Den Bosch beat FC Eindhoven 1-3 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.52 xG and Den Bosch 1.55 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Den Bosch outscored their 1.55 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.73 / defence 1.18 against Den Bosch attack 0.92 / defence 1.20, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 37% | Draw 24% | Den Bosch 39%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 58%, Den Bosch 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Eindhoven's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Den Bosch's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.25 PPG, Den Bosch 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Den Bosch win broke the near-deadlock. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights