FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Eindhoven at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees De Graafschap travel to Jan Louwers Stadion to take on FC Eindhoven. The game is scheduled for Saturday 3 October 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC Eindhoven have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. FC Eindhoven have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Eindhoven's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Jan Louwers Stadion this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — FC Eindhoven are significantly better at Jan Louwers Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, De Graafschap have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Eindhoven 0.80 PPG, De Graafschap 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Eindhoven register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, De Graafschap in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for FC Eindhoven, 5 for De Graafschap and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
FC Eindhoven in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Eindhoven 49% and De Graafschap 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Eindhoven 63% | De Graafschap 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 1.91 xG and De Graafschap 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 0.913 / defence 1.099 | De Graafschap attack 0.781 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.911 / away 1.723. Data: 43 FC Eindhoven games / 43 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 48% | Draw 22% | De Graafschap 30%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 2.08 | Draw 4.55 | De Graafschap 3.33. FC Eindhoven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Eindhoven at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.39 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Eindhoven 60% | De Graafschap 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 48% | Draw 22% | De Graafschap 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG FC Eindhoven 1.91 / De Graafschap 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 0.913 / def 1.099 | De Graafschap attack 0.781 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.911 / away 1.723 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.48
De Graafschap xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Saturday 3 October 2026 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap part of?
FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 48% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 30% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap?
Record (10 meetings): FC Eindhoven 3W | Draws 2 | De Graafschap 5W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. De Graafschap (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Eindhoven's attack rating (0.91) and De Graafschap's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus FC Eindhoven's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
48%
2.09
22%
4.51
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
3.39
1.48
De Graafschap xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
15%
6.75
Win to Nil
11%
9.16
4%
22.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 9.5 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.48 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Eindhoven's recent record stands at 15W 6D 22L from 43 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 17W 11D 15L across 43 games — 1.44 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Eindhoven on 1.19 PPG, De Graafschap on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Eindhoven have managed 9W 3D 9L from 21 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 7W 7D 7L across 21 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.84 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap in 74%.
Last 43 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Early Season
De Graafschap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 15W 6D 22L in their last 43 games (1.19 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 17W 11D 15L in their last 43 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or De Graafschap away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 1.43 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Feb 2023, when De Graafschap won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Eindhoven's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Eindhoven
2
Draws
5
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 3, De Graafschap have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when FC Eindhoven 2-2 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 52%, De Graafschap 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for FC Eindhoven and 67% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of FC Eindhoven's games and 71% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of FC Eindhoven's matches and 67% of De Graafschap's.
Do FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.