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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Eindhoven and Cambuur share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 17, as FC Eindhoven and Cambuur drew 3-3 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.03 xG and Cambuur 2.15 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. FC Eindhoven beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cambuur outscored their 2.15 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.72 / defence 1.26 against Cambuur attack 1.17 / defence 0.83, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 17% | Draw 20% | Cambuur 63%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 58%, Cambuur 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Eindhoven's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Cambuur's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cambuur (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights