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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Eindhoven cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Cambuur.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Eindhoven beat Cambuur 4-2 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 0.66 xG and Cambuur 2.14 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. FC Eindhoven beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.66 / defence 1.23 against Cambuur attack 1.30 / defence 0.63, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 10% | Draw 20% | Cambuur 71%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a FC Eindhoven win, an outcome the model had rated at just 10% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 52%, Cambuur 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Eindhoven's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Cambuur's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.20 PPG, Cambuur 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Eindhoven win broke the near-deadlock. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm. Cambuur (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights