Excelsior 2-0 Jong Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Excelsior at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Excelsior vs Jong Ajax encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Excelsior host Jong Ajax at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 17). Kick-off is Friday 29 November 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Excelsior stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Excelsior at home: 9W 0D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Excelsior are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Jong Ajax — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Jong Ajax away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Excelsior are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.30 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Excelsior's games and 60% of Jong Ajax's (from Excelsior's last 10 home games and Jong Ajax's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Excelsior, 0 for Jong Ajax and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 11 Feb 2022, ended Excelsior 6–2 Jong Ajax — a Excelsior win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Excelsior in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Jong Ajax in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Excelsior 63% and Jong Ajax 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Excelsior 78% | Jong Ajax 63%). Note also that Jong Ajax surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Excelsior recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 2.35 xG and Jong Ajax 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 1.247 / defence 0.952 | Jong Ajax attack 0.939 / defence 1.219. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.429. Jong Ajax's defence rating of 1.219 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Excelsior's projected output up. Data: built from Excelsior's last 16 games and Jong Ajax's last 54.
Result probabilities: Excelsior 61% | Draw 20% | Jong Ajax 19%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 1.65 | Draw 4.95 | Jong Ajax 5.23. The model has a clear lean to Excelsior (61%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (2.35 / 1.28) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Excelsior are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.62 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Excelsior's last 10 home games and Jong Ajax's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Excelsior 60% (last 10 home games) | Jong Ajax 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs Jong Ajax | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 17 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 29 November 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 61% | Draw 20% | Jong Ajax 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% (Under 30%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Excelsior 2.35 / Jong Ajax 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 1.247 / def 0.952 | Jong Ajax attack 0.939 / def 1.219 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.429 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.35
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Jong Ajax xG
66%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Excelsior vs Jong Ajax FAQs
What time does Excelsior vs Jong Ajax kick off?
Excelsior vs Jong Ajax kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 29 November 2024 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs Jong Ajax?
Excelsior 2 - 0 Jong Ajax.
Where is Excelsior vs Jong Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs Jong Ajax part of?
Excelsior vs Jong Ajax is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 17) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs Jong Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 61% chance of winning, Jong Ajax a 19% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Jong Ajax?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Excelsior and Jong Ajax will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Excelsior vs Jong Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Excelsior's attack at 1.25x the league average against Jong Ajax's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 2.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Ajax's attack versus Excelsior's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Excelsior's last 16 games and Jong Ajax's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.0%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
61%
1.65
20%
4.95
19%
5.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
2 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.35
Excelsior xG
Total xG
3.62
1.28
Jong Ajax xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.95
20%
Draw
5.23
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
10%
10.45
Win to Nil
17%
5.91
2%
54.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Excelsior vs Jong Ajax Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs Jong Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Excelsior and Jong Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 2.35 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.28 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs Jong Ajax?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, Excelsior have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 19W 14D 21L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Jong Ajax's form line: 13W 16D 25L from 54 games, 1.02 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Excelsior on 1.31 PPG, Jong Ajax on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Excelsior have posted 1.65 PPG from their last 26 home games (12W 7D 7L).
On the road, Jong Ajax have gone 4W 8D 14L from their last 26 away games — 0.77 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Excelsior are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Jong Ajax are on 1.31 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Excelsior have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Blended
Jong Ajax
Blended
Excelsior (Home) vs Jong Ajax (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Excelsior
Blended
Jong Ajax
Blended
❓ Excelsior vs Jong Ajax Form FAQs
What form are Excelsior and Jong Ajax in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 19W 14D 21L in their last 54 games (1.31 PPG), while Jong Ajax have gone 13W 16D 25L in their last 54 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or Jong Ajax away?
Excelsior's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.65 PPG; Jong Ajax away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent in our data was on 10 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Feb 2022, when Excelsior won Excelsior 6-2 Jong Ajax.
Excelsior's record when hosting Jong Ajax specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Excelsior
0
Draws
1
Jong Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Excelsior vs Jong Ajax H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Jong Ajax?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Excelsior have won 3, Jong Ajax have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and Jong Ajax last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 February 2025: Jong Ajax 3-2 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and Jong Ajax?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Excelsior at 62%, Jong Ajax at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Excelsior and 73% for Jong Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / Jong Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Excelsior vs Jong Ajax Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Excelsior and Jong Ajax matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Excelsior's games and 73% of Jong Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Excelsior and Jong Ajax matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Excelsior's matches and 73% of Jong Ajax's.
Do Excelsior and Jong Ajax matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Excelsior's recent matches and 81% of Jong Ajax's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Excelsior cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Jong Ajax.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat Jong Ajax 2-0 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 2.35 xG and Jong Ajax 1.28 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Jong Ajax landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 1.25 / defence 0.95 against Jong Ajax attack 0.94 / defence 1.22, drawn from 16/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 61% | Draw 20% | Jong Ajax 19%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 78%, Jong Ajax 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong Ajax's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Excelsior 1.31 PPG, Jong Ajax 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Excelsior win broke the near-deadlock. Excelsior (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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