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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Excelsior cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Den Bosch.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Excelsior beat Den Bosch 3-1 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.13 xG and Den Bosch 0.92 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Excelsior beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.81 / defence 0.87 against Den Bosch attack 0.83 / defence 0.84, drawn from 29/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Excelsior 40% | Draw 31% | Den Bosch 29%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 69%, Den Bosch 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Excelsior's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Den Bosch's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Excelsior 1.31 PPG, Den Bosch 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Excelsior win broke the near-deadlock. Excelsior (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.91 average — above their attacking norm. Den Bosch (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights