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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Emmen and Waalwijk share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 14, as Emmen and Waalwijk drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 2.11 xG and Waalwijk 1.71 xG, a combined 3.82. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 1.21 / defence 1.10 against Waalwijk attack 1.11 / defence 0.99, drawn from 51/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Emmen 47% | Draw 21% | Waalwijk 32%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 62%, Waalwijk 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Emmen's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Waalwijk's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Emmen 1.38 PPG, Waalwijk 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights