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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Emmen edge out VVV Venlo 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Emmen beat VVV Venlo 2-1 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 37, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.78 xG and VVV Venlo 1.26 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.97 / defence 1.12 against VVV Venlo attack 0.91 / defence 1.10, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Emmen 49% | Draw 25% | VVV Venlo 26%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 60%, VVV Venlo 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Emmen's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

VVV Venlo's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Emmen 1.49 PPG, VVV Venlo 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Emmen win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights