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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Vitesse cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Emmen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vitesse beat Emmen 2-4 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 9, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.95 xG and Vitesse 1.10 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Vitesse outscored their 1.10 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.93 / defence 0.98 against Vitesse attack 0.81 / defence 1.18, drawn from 46/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Emmen 57% | Draw 22% | Vitesse 21%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Vitesse win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 60%, Vitesse 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Emmen's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Vitesse's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Emmen 1.40 PPG, Vitesse 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vitesse win broke the near-deadlock. Emmen (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vitesse (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights