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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Emmen and Roda share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Emmen and Roda finished level at 1-1 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 16, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 2.37 xG and Roda 1.58 xG, a combined 3.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Emmen fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 1.25 / defence 1.09 against Roda attack 0.98 / defence 1.10, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Emmen 55% | Draw 19% | Roda 25%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 60%, Roda 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Emmen's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Roda's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Emmen 1.45 PPG, Roda 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights