Emmen 0-1 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Emmen at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Emmen vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Roda make the trip to De Oude Meerdijk to face Emmen in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Friday 15 December 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Emmen (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Emmen have posted 6W 1D 3L at De Oude Meerdijk — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at De Oude Meerdijk.
Roda have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Roda have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Emmen, 0 for Roda and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2022, ended 2–0 with Emmen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Emmen — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Roda — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 55% versus Roda 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 55% | Roda 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.16 xG and Roda 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.913 / defence 1.003 | Roda attack 0.816 / defence 0.803. League average goals — home 1.575 / away 1.369. Data: 18 Emmen games / 56 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 35% | Draw 32% | Roda 33%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Roda 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Emmen are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Emmen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Emmen 50% | Roda 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 15 Dec 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 35% | Draw 32% | Roda 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Emmen 1.16 / Roda 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.913 / def 1.003 | Roda attack 0.816 / def 0.803 | league avg home 1.575 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Emmen (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Roda xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Roda kick off?
Emmen vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 15 December 2023 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Roda?
Emmen 0 - 1 Roda.
Where is Emmen vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Roda part of?
Emmen vs Roda is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 35% chance of winning, Roda a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Emmen and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Roda?
Record (2 meetings): Emmen 2W | Draws 0 | Roda 0W.
What form are Emmen and Roda in?
Emmen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Roda (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Emmen's attack rating (0.91) and Roda's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Roda's attack (0.82x) against Emmen's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 18/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
35%
2.86
32%
3.14
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Emmen xG
Total xG
2.28
1.12
Roda xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
11%
8.79
10%
9.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 11.5 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Emmen and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Emmen and 1.12 for Roda, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Emmen come into this having played 56 games, going 17W 15D 24L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Roda sit at 1.39 PPG from 56 outings (22W 12D 22L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Emmen against 1.39 for Roda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Emmen's home form reads 9W 10D 8L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Roda have taken 1.04 points per game from 27 outings (7W 7D 13L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Emmen are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.41 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Roda in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 17W 15D 24L in their last 56 games (1.18 PPG), while Roda have gone 22W 12D 22L in their last 56 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Roda away?
Emmen's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.37 PPG; Roda away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Emmen have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Roda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Emmen
2
Draws
4
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Roda?
From 9 meetings on record, Emmen have won 3, Roda have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Emmen 1-0 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Emmen see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 44%, Roda 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Emmen) and 44% (Roda).
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Emmen have failed to score in 30% of games; Roda in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Roda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Emmen's recent matches and 52% of Roda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Emmen's recent games and 44% of Roda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Emmen and Roda tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Roda in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Roda defy the odds to beat Emmen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat Emmen 0-1 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 19, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.16 xG and Roda 1.12 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Emmen fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.91 / defence 1.00 against Roda attack 0.82 / defence 0.80, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 35% | Draw 32% | Roda 33%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Roda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 55%, Roda 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Roda's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Emmen 1.18 PPG, Roda 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Roda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.