Emmen vs NAC Breda – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Emmen (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Emmen face NAC Breda.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 23 as Emmen welcome NAC Breda to De Oude Meerdijk. Kick-off is set for Friday 22 January 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Emmen have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Emmen have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Emmen's home record at De Oude Meerdijk: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
NAC Breda — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
NAC Breda's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Emmen carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Emmen register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, NAC Breda in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Emmen have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 8 past contests while NAC Breda have managed just 2 wins.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2024, ended 0–3 with NAC Breda winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Emmen and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Emmen trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
NAC Breda trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 60% versus NAC Breda 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 65% | NAC Breda 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 2.55 xG and NAC Breda 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 1.084 / defence 0.985 | NAC Breda attack 1.017 / defence 1.236. League average goals — home 1.899 / away 1.685. NAC Breda bring a strong defensive rating of 1.236 — this is suppressing Emmen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Emmen games / 6 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 56% | Draw 19% | NAC Breda 25%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 1.79 | Draw 5.26 | NAC Breda 4.00. The model has a clear lean to Emmen (56%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 4.23. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.23 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (2.55 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Emmen as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.23 combined xG gives a 79% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 75% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Emmen 60% | NAC Breda 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 22 Jan 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 56% | Draw 19% | NAC Breda 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 75% | xG Emmen 2.55 / NAC Breda 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 1.084 / def 0.985 | NAC Breda attack 1.017 / def 1.236 | league avg home 1.899 / away 1.685 • Poisson stance: Emmen (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.55
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.69
NAC Breda xG
75%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs NAC Breda kick off?
Emmen vs NAC Breda is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 22 January 2027 at De Oude Meerdijk.
Where is Emmen vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs NAC Breda part of?
Emmen vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 56% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 25% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both Emmen and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and NAC Breda?
Record (8 meetings): Emmen 5W | Draws 1 | NAC Breda 2W.
What form are Emmen and NAC Breda in?
Emmen (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. NAC Breda (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Emmen's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against NAC Breda's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.55. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 7.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.0%), 3-1 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
56%
1.77
19%
5.38
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
3 – 1
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.55
Emmen xG
Total xG
4.23
1.69
NAC Breda xG
1.77
56%
Home win
5.38
19%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.33
25%
BTTS No
4.02
Clean Sheet
18%
5.41
8%
12.76
Win to Nil
10%
9.58
2%
51.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.9%.
How many goals are Emmen and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 2.55 expected goals for Emmen and 1.69 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 4.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs NAC Breda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Emmen have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 15W 9D 16L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Emmen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
NAC Breda's form line: 8W 12D 20L from 40 games, 0.90 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Emmen are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against NAC Breda.
Venue Form
On home soil, Emmen have posted 1.70 PPG from 20 outings (10W 4D 6L).
On the road, NAC Breda have gone 2W 7D 11L from 20 away games — 0.65 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Emmen are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.15 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Emmen have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Early Season
NAC Breda
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 15W 9D 16L in their last 40 games (1.35 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 8W 12D 20L in their last 40 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or NAC Breda away?
Emmen's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.70 PPG; NAC Breda away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2024, when NAC Breda won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Emmen's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Emmen
1
Draws
2
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and NAC Breda?
From 8 meetings on record, Emmen have won 5, NAC Breda have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2024, when Emmen 0-3 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and NAC Breda?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 60%, NAC Breda 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Emmen and 65% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Emmen's games and 55% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Emmen vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Emmen's matches and 65% of NAC Breda's.
Do Emmen and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.