Emmen 1-1 MVV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Emmen at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Emmen vs MVV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
De Oude Meerdijk plays host to Emmen versus MVV in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Friday 4 October 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Emmen have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Emmen at De Oude Meerdijk this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
MVV (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
MVV's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Emmen against 1.30 for MVV. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Emmen 2W, MVV 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2024, ended 1–3 with MVV winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Emmen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
MVV goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 54% versus MVV 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 61% | MVV 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.64 xG and MVV 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 1.021 / defence 1.217 | MVV attack 0.701 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.470. Data: 46 Emmen games / 46 MVV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 45% | Draw 28% | MVV 28%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | MVV 3.57. Emmen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Emmen at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Emmen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Emmen 60% | MVV 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs MVV | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 4 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 45% | Draw 28% | MVV 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Emmen 1.64 / MVV 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 1.021 / def 1.217 | MVV attack 0.701 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.470 • Poisson stance: Emmen (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.25
MVV xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs MVV kick off?
Emmen vs MVV kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 4 October 2024 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs MVV?
Emmen 1 - 1 MVV.
Where is Emmen vs MVV being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs MVV part of?
Emmen vs MVV is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs MVV?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 45% chance of winning, MVV a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs MVV?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Emmen and MVV will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs MVV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and MVV?
Record (4 meetings): Emmen 2W | Draws 1 | MVV 1W.
What form are Emmen and MVV in?
Emmen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. MVV (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Emmen's attack at 1.02x the league average against MVV's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — MVV's attack (0.70x) against Emmen's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
45%
2.23
28%
3.61
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Emmen xG
Total xG
2.90
1.25
MVV xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
29%
3.51
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
13%
7.84
5%
18.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.4 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs MVV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Emmen and MVV expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Emmen and 1.25 for MVV, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs MVV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Emmen's recent record stands at 20W 8D 18L from 46 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
MVV, meanwhile, have gone 17W 12D 17L across 46 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Emmen against 1.37 for MVV. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Emmen have managed 10W 4D 9L from 23 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
MVV's away record stands at 8W 5D 10L across 23 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Emmen are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; MVV are on 1.57 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
MVV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and MVV in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 20W 8D 18L in their last 46 games (1.48 PPG), while MVV have gone 17W 12D 17L in their last 46 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or MVV away?
Emmen's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.48 PPG; MVV away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Emmen won 7-1 on 10 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Emmen have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against MVV — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Emmen
2
Draws
2
MVV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and MVV?
From 8 meetings on record, Emmen have won 4, MVV have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and MVV last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Emmen 2-1 MVV.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and MVV?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 48%, MVV 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Emmen and 74% for MVV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; MVV in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / MVV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play MVV?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Emmen's recent matches and 61% of MVV's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs MVV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Emmen's matches and 74% of MVV's.
Do Emmen and MVV tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, MVV in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Emmen and MVV share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 9, as Emmen and MVV drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.64 xG and MVV 1.25 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 1.02 / defence 1.22 against MVV attack 0.70 / defence 1.11, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 45% | Draw 28% | MVV 28%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 61%, MVV 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
MVV's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Emmen 1.48 PPG, MVV 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.