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Prediction vindicated as Emmen edge out Jong Utrecht 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Emmen beat Jong Utrecht 1-0 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.64 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.62 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Jong Utrecht landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.97 / defence 1.00, drawn from 65/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Emmen 38% | Draw 25% | Jong Utrecht 37%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 62%, Jong Utrecht 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Emmen's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Jong Utrecht's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.23 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights