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Emmen cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Jong PSV U21.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Emmen beat Jong PSV U21 4-2 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.48 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.18 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Emmen beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong PSV U21 outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.89 / defence 1.13 against Jong PSV U21 attack 0.81 / defence 1.03, drawn from 60/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Emmen 44% | Draw 26% | Jong PSV U21 30%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 61%, Jong PSV U21 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Emmen's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights