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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Emmen run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Helmond Sport.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Emmen beat Helmond Sport 4-1 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 20, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.93 xG and Helmond Sport 1.18 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Emmen beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 1.28 / defence 1.09 against Helmond Sport attack 0.75 / defence 0.88, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Emmen 54% | Draw 23% | Helmond Sport 23%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 61%, Helmond Sport 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Emmen's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Helmond Sport's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Emmen 1.42 PPG, Helmond Sport 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Emmen win broke the near-deadlock. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights