Emmen 0-0 Helmond Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Emmen at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Emmen vs Helmond Sport encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Emmen and Helmond Sport meet at De Oude Meerdijk in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Friday 23 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Emmen's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Emmen have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at De Oude Meerdijk, Emmen have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at De Oude Meerdijk this season.
Helmond Sport have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Helmond Sport have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Helmond Sport's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Emmen's 2.00 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Helmond Sport's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Emmen, 2 for Helmond Sport and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2024, ended 3–0 with Emmen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Emmen half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Helmond Sport half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 52% versus Helmond Sport 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 60% | Helmond Sport 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.31 xG and Helmond Sport 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.982 / defence 1.050 | Helmond Sport attack 0.832 / defence 0.843. League average goals — home 1.588 / away 1.319. Data: 40 Emmen games / 40 Helmond Sport games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Emmen 39% | Draw 31% | Helmond Sport 31%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Helmond Sport 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Emmen at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Emmen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Emmen 50% | Helmond Sport 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Helmond Sport | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 23 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 39% | Draw 31% | Helmond Sport 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Emmen 1.31 / Helmond Sport 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.982 / def 1.050 | Helmond Sport attack 0.832 / def 0.843 | league avg home 1.588 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Emmen (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Helmond Sport xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Helmond Sport kick off?
Emmen vs Helmond Sport kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 23 August 2024 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Helmond Sport?
Emmen 0 - 0 Helmond Sport.
Where is Emmen vs Helmond Sport being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Helmond Sport part of?
Emmen vs Helmond Sport is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Helmond Sport?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 39% chance of winning, Helmond Sport a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Helmond Sport?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Emmen and Helmond Sport will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Helmond Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Helmond Sport?
Record (4 meetings): Emmen 2W | Draws 0 | Helmond Sport 2W.
What form are Emmen and Helmond Sport in?
Emmen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Helmond Sport (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Emmen's attack rating (0.98) and Helmond Sport's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Helmond Sport's attack (0.83x) against Emmen's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
39%
2.60
31%
3.26
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Emmen xG
Total xG
2.46
1.15
Helmond Sport xG
2.60
39%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
12%
8.22
8%
12.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Helmond Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Emmen and Helmond Sport expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Emmen and 1.15 for Helmond Sport, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Helmond Sport?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Emmen's recent record stands at 18W 6D 16L from 40 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Emmen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Helmond Sport, meanwhile, have gone 15W 10D 15L across 40 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-W-D-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Helmond Sport, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Emmen against 1.38 for Helmond Sport. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Emmen have managed 10W 2D 8L from 20 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Helmond Sport's away record stands at 5W 4D 11L across 20 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Helmond Sport's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Emmen are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Helmond Sport are on 1.35 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Helmond Sport in 60%.
Last 40 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Early Season
Helmond Sport
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Helmond Sport in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 18W 6D 16L in their last 40 games (1.50 PPG), while Helmond Sport have gone 15W 10D 15L in their last 40 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Helmond Sport away?
Emmen's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.60 PPG; Helmond Sport away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Emmen won 3-0 on 29 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Emmen have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Helmond Sport — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Emmen
1
Draws
3
Helmond Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Helmond Sport?
From 8 meetings on record, Emmen have won 4, Helmond Sport have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Helmond Sport last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when Emmen 4-1 Helmond Sport.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Helmond Sport?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 45%, Helmond Sport 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Emmen) and 55% (Helmond Sport). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Helmond Sport in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Helmond Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Helmond Sport?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Emmen's recent matches and 50% of Helmond Sport's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs Helmond Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Emmen's matches and 55% of Helmond Sport's.
Do Emmen and Helmond Sport tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 95% of their recent matches, Helmond Sport in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Emmen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen and Helmond Sport finished level at 0-0 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 3, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.31 xG and Helmond Sport 1.15 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Emmen fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Helmond Sport landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.98 / defence 1.05 against Helmond Sport attack 0.83 / defence 0.84, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 39% | Draw 31% | Helmond Sport 31%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 60%, Helmond Sport 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Helmond Sport's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Emmen 1.50 PPG, Helmond Sport 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.