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Shock result as FC Volendam defy the odds to beat Emmen 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Volendam beat Emmen 1-2 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.78 xG and FC Volendam 1.66 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 1.04 / defence 1.20 against FC Volendam attack 1.10 / defence 1.03, drawn from 62/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Emmen 41% | Draw 23% | FC Volendam 36%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual FC Volendam win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 59%, FC Volendam 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Emmen's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

FC Volendam's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Emmen 1.44 PPG, FC Volendam 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Volendam win broke the near-deadlock. FC Volendam (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.21 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights