🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Emmen and FC OSS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Emmen and FC OSS finished level at 1-1 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 5, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 2.01 xG and FC OSS 1.43 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Emmen fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 1.04 / defence 1.28 against FC OSS attack 0.91 / defence 1.17, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Emmen 51% | Draw 22% | FC OSS 27%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 62%, FC OSS 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Emmen's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

FC OSS's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC OSS (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights