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Dominant Emmen run riot with a 6-0 hammering of FC Eindhoven.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Emmen beat FC Eindhoven 6-0 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 12, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.83 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.13 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Emmen beat their projection by 4.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Eindhoven landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.97 / defence 1.18 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.68 / defence 1.09, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Emmen 54% | Draw 23% | FC Eindhoven 23%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 60%, FC Eindhoven 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Emmen's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Eindhoven's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Emmen 1.38 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Emmen win broke the near-deadlock. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights