Emmen 6-0 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Emmen at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Emmen vs FC Eindhoven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Eindhoven make the trip to De Oude Meerdijk to face Emmen in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 October 2025 at 17:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Emmen have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: D W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Emmen's home record at De Oude Meerdijk: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Emmen are significantly better at De Oude Meerdijk than their overall form suggests.
FC Eindhoven's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Eindhoven have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Emmen, 1.10 for FC Eindhoven — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Across the last 6 meetings, FC Eindhoven have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Emmen's 1, with 1 draws in the mix.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2025, ended 1–2 with FC Eindhoven winning.
It is worth noting that FC Eindhoven have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Emmen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
FC Eindhoven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 52% versus FC Eindhoven 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 60% | FC Eindhoven 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.83 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.972 / defence 1.180 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.678 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.408. Data: 48 Emmen games / 48 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 54% | Draw 23% | FC Eindhoven 23%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | FC Eindhoven 4.35. Emmen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Emmen are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Emmen if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Emmen 60% | FC Eindhoven 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Oct 2025, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 54% | Draw 23% | FC Eindhoven 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Emmen 1.83 / FC Eindhoven 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.972 / def 1.180 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.678 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.408 • Poisson stance: Emmen (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.13
FC Eindhoven xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
Emmen vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 11 October 2025 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs FC Eindhoven?
Emmen 6 - 0 FC Eindhoven.
Where is Emmen vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs FC Eindhoven part of?
Emmen vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 54% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Emmen and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and FC Eindhoven?
Record (6 meetings): Emmen 1W | Draws 1 | FC Eindhoven 4W.
What form are Emmen and FC Eindhoven in?
Emmen (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Emmen's attack at 0.97x the league average against FC Eindhoven's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Eindhoven's attack (0.68x) against Emmen's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
54%
1.86
23%
4.36
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Emmen xG
Total xG
2.95
1.13
FC Eindhoven xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
16%
6.22
Win to Nil
17%
5.74
4%
26.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.7 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Emmen and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Emmen and 1.13 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Emmen come into this having played 48 games, going 20W 6D 22L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Eindhoven sit at 1.29 PPG from 48 outings (17W 11D 20L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Emmen against 1.29 for FC Eindhoven. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Emmen's home form reads 9W 5D 10L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Eindhoven have taken 1.46 points per game from 24 outings (10W 5D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Emmen are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.40 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
FC Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 20W 6D 22L in their last 48 games (1.38 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 17W 11D 20L in their last 48 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or FC Eindhoven away?
FC Eindhoven's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.33 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Emmen or FC Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, FC Eindhoven in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 28 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Emmen won 6-0 on 11 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Emmen have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against FC Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Emmen
1
Draws
5
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and FC Eindhoven?
From 8 meetings on record, Emmen have won 2, FC Eindhoven have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 28 March 2026, when FC Eindhoven 1-0 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and FC Eindhoven?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 62%, FC Eindhoven 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Emmen) and 54% (FC Eindhoven). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven in 33%; FC Eindhoven in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play FC Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Emmen's recent matches and 42% of FC Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Emmen's matches and 54% of FC Eindhoven's.
Do Emmen and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Emmen run riot with a 6-0 hammering of FC Eindhoven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat FC Eindhoven 6-0 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 12, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.83 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.13 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Emmen beat their projection by 4.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Eindhoven landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.97 / defence 1.18 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.68 / defence 1.09, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 54% | Draw 23% | FC Eindhoven 23%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 60%, FC Eindhoven 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Emmen 1.38 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Emmen win broke the near-deadlock. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.