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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Emmen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Dordrecht.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Emmen beat Dordrecht 2-0 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 7, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.34 xG and Dordrecht 1.81 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Dordrecht landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.94 / defence 1.17 against Dordrecht attack 1.21 / defence 0.83, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Emmen 28% | Draw 23% | Dordrecht 49%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Emmen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 61%, Dordrecht 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Emmen's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Dordrecht's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Emmen 1.43 PPG, Dordrecht 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Emmen win broke the near-deadlock. Emmen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights