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Emmen cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Den Bosch.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Emmen beat Den Bosch 3-1 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 4, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.59 xG and Den Bosch 1.56 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Emmen beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.92 / defence 1.31 against Den Bosch attack 0.94 / defence 1.03, drawn from 41/40 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Emmen 39% | Draw 24% | Den Bosch 37%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 61%, Den Bosch 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Emmen's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Den Bosch's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Emmen 1.37 PPG, Den Bosch 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Emmen win broke the near-deadlock. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm. Den Bosch (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights