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Dominant Den Bosch run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Emmen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Den Bosch beat Emmen 0-3 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 20, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.31 xG and Den Bosch 1.21 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Emmen fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Den Bosch outscored their 1.21 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 1.05 / defence 0.96 against Den Bosch attack 0.91 / defence 0.83, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Emmen 37% | Draw 31% | Den Bosch 32%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Den Bosch win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 58%, Den Bosch 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Emmen's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Den Bosch's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Den Bosch winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights