Emmen vs De Graafschap – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Emmen (64%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Emmen face De Graafschap.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees De Graafschap travel to De Oude Meerdijk to take on Emmen. The game is scheduled for Friday 11 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Emmen have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Emmen have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Emmen at De Oude Meerdijk this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
De Graafschap — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
De Graafschap's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Emmen carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Emmen have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 8 past contests while De Graafschap have managed just 2 wins.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Emmen winning.
The historical record gives Emmen a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Emmen trading profile (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
De Graafschap trading profile (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Emmen 60% and De Graafschap 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Emmen 65% | De Graafschap 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 2.47 xG and De Graafschap 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 1.187 / defence 0.939 | De Graafschap attack 0.781 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.909 / away 1.702. Data: 43 Emmen games / 43 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 64% | Draw 18% | De Graafschap 18%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 1.56 | Draw 5.56 | De Graafschap 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Emmen (64%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.72. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.72 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.47 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Emmen as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.72 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Emmen 50% | De Graafschap 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 11 Sep 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 64% | Draw 18% | De Graafschap 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 65% | xG Emmen 2.47 / De Graafschap 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 1.187 / def 0.939 | De Graafschap attack 0.781 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.909 / away 1.702 • Poisson stance: Emmen (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.47
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.25
De Graafschap xG
65%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs De Graafschap kick off?
Emmen vs De Graafschap is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 11 September 2026 at De Oude Meerdijk.
Where is Emmen vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs De Graafschap part of?
Emmen vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 64% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 18% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Emmen and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and De Graafschap?
Record (8 meetings): Emmen 5W | Draws 1 | De Graafschap 2W.
What form are Emmen and De Graafschap in?
Emmen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. De Graafschap (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Emmen's attack at 1.19x the league average against De Graafschap's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 2.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.5%), 3-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
64%
1.56
18%
5.53
18%
5.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.6%
Home win
1 – 1
7.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.47
Emmen xG
Total xG
3.72
1.25
De Graafschap xG
1.56
64%
Home win
5.53
18%
Draw
5.62
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
8%
11.82
Win to Nil
18%
5.44
2%
66.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Emmen and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 2.47 expected goals for Emmen and 1.25 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs De Graafschap?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Emmen have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 16W 9D 18L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Emmen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
De Graafschap's form line: 17W 11D 15L from 43 games, 1.44 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Emmen on 1.33 PPG, De Graafschap on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Emmen have posted 1.73 PPG from 22 outings (11W 5D 6L).
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 8W 7D 7L from 22 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Emmen are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.84 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Emmen have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; De Graafschap in 74%.
Last 43 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Early Season
De Graafschap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 16W 9D 18L in their last 43 games (1.33 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 17W 11D 15L in their last 43 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or De Graafschap away?
Emmen's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.73 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Emmen have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Jan 2025, when De Graafschap won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Emmen's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Emmen
1
Draws
2
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and De Graafschap?
From 8 meetings on record, Emmen have won 5, De Graafschap have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Emmen 1-0 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and De Graafschap?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Emmen at 64%, De Graafschap at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Emmen and 68% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Emmen's games and 73% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Emmen vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Emmen's matches and 68% of De Graafschap's.
Do Emmen and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.