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Shock result as Emmen defy the odds to beat De Graafschap 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Emmen beat De Graafschap 1-0 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 38, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.65 xG and De Graafschap 2.15 xG, a combined 3.80. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. De Graafschap landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.98 / defence 1.17 against De Graafschap attack 1.26 / defence 1.03, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Emmen 30% | Draw 21% | De Graafschap 49%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Emmen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 63%, De Graafschap 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Emmen's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

De Graafschap's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Emmen 1.31 PPG, De Graafschap 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Emmen win broke the near-deadlock. Emmen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights