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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cambuur cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Emmen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambuur beat Emmen 2-4 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 22, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.26 xG and Cambuur 1.70 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Cambuur outscored their 1.70 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.97 / defence 1.01 against Cambuur attack 1.13 / defence 0.85, drawn from 69/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Emmen 28% | Draw 24% | Cambuur 48%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 61%, Cambuur 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Emmen's trading profile (69 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Cambuur's trading profile (69 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 2.01 PPG against 1.35. That form edge translated into the three points. Emmen (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cambuur (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights