🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Emmen run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cambuur.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Emmen beat Cambuur 3-0 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 33, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.34 xG and Cambuur 1.69 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Emmen beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cambuur landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.94 / defence 1.03 against Cambuur attack 1.26 / defence 0.89, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Emmen 30% | Draw 25% | Cambuur 45%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Emmen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 60%, Cambuur 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Emmen's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Cambuur's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Emmen 1.53 PPG, Cambuur 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Emmen win broke the near-deadlock. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.51 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights