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Dominant Almere City FC run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Emmen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Almere City FC beat Emmen 1-4 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 2, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.99 xG and Almere City FC 1.08 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Emmen fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Almere City FC outscored their 1.08 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 1.00 / defence 1.04 against Almere City FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 39/0 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Emmen 58% | Draw 21% | Almere City FC 20%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Almere City FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 62%, Almere City FC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Emmen's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Almere City FC's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.65. Form was overturned, with Almere City FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Emmen (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights