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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Dordrecht run riot with a 3-0 hammering of MVV.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dordrecht beat MVV 3-0 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 36, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 2.50 xG and MVV 0.67 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.39 / defence 0.74 against MVV attack 0.72 / defence 1.08, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 77% | Draw 16% | MVV 7%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 77%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 60%, MVV 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dordrecht's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

MVV's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dordrecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. MVV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights