🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Jong PSV U21 defy the odds to beat Dordrecht 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong PSV U21 beat Dordrecht 1-2 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.87 xG and Jong PSV U21 0.95 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Dordrecht fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Jong PSV U21 outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.17 / defence 0.77 against Jong PSV U21 attack 1.02 / defence 0.99, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 59% | Draw 22% | Jong PSV U21 19%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Jong PSV U21 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 60%, Jong PSV U21 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dordrecht's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 0.90. Form was overturned, with Jong PSV U21 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.55 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights