Dordrecht 4-0 Jong Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dordrecht at 63% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Matchoholic Stadion plays host to Dordrecht versus Jong Ajax in Eerste Divisie (matchday 11). Kick-off: Friday 20 October 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Dordrecht have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Dordrecht's form when playing at home: 3W 6D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Jong Ajax's record over their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.60. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Jong Ajax's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 0D 7L (0.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Dordrecht. A 1.00 PPG lead over Jong Ajax (1.50 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Dordrecht's last 10 home games and Jong Ajax's last 10 away games) — Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Jong Ajax in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Jong Ajax edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 6.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 3 Apr 2023, ended Dordrecht 1–4 Jong Ajax — a Jong Ajax win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 6.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Dordrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 47 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Jong Ajax goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 47 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dordrecht 55% and Jong Ajax 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 60% | Jong Ajax 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 2.87 xG and Jong Ajax 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 1.066 / defence 1.143 | Jong Ajax attack 1.049 / defence 1.594. League average goals — home 1.686 / away 1.366. Jong Ajax's defence rating of 1.594 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dordrecht's projected output up. Data: built from Dordrecht's last 47 games and Jong Ajax's last 47.
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 63% | Draw 17% | Jong Ajax 20%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 1.59 | Draw 5.92 | Jong Ajax 4.96. The model has a clear lean to Dordrecht (63%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 83% | BTTS Yes probability 76% | Total xG 4.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 83% — a total xG of 4.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% — both xG figures (2.87 / 1.64) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dordrecht as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.50 combined xG gives a 83% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Dordrecht's last 10 home games and Jong Ajax's last 10 away games) averaging 3.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 6.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 76%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dordrecht 60% (last 10 home games) | Jong Ajax 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 11 | Venue: Matchoholic Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 20 October 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 63% | Draw 17% | Jong Ajax 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 83% (Under 17%) | BTTS Yes 76% (No 24%) | xG Dordrecht 2.87 / Jong Ajax 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 1.066 / def 1.143 | Jong Ajax attack 1.049 / def 1.594 | league avg home 1.686 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.87
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Jong Ajax xG
76%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax FAQs
What time does Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax kick off?
Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 20 October 2023 at Matchoholic Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax?
Dordrecht 4 - 0 Jong Ajax.
Where is Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Matchoholic Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax part of?
Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 11) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 63% chance of winning, Jong Ajax a 20% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both Dordrecht and Jong Ajax will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 83%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Dordrecht's attack at 1.07x the league average against Jong Ajax's defence at 1.59x — combine the two and it projects 2.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong Ajax's attack (1.05x) against Dordrecht's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from Dordrecht's last 47 games and Jong Ajax's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 7.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (7.1%), 2-2 (6.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
63%
1.59
17%
5.92
20%
4.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.1%
Home win
2 – 2
6.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.87
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
4.50
1.64
Jong Ajax xG
1.59
63%
Home win
5.92
17%
Draw
4.96
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
83%
Over 2.5
1.20
17%
Under 2.5
5.88
66%
Over 3.5
1.52
34%
Under 3.5
2.94
47%
Over 4.5
2.13
53%
Under 4.5
1.89
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.31
24%
BTTS No
4.18
Clean Sheet
19%
5.15
6%
17.55
Win to Nil
12%
8.18
1%
87.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.4 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.4%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Jong Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 2.87 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.64 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 4.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 47 outings, Dordrecht have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 12W 13D 22L record — D-W-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Jong Ajax's form line: 13W 12D 22L from 47 games, 1.09 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Dordrecht against 1.09 for Jong Ajax. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Dordrecht have posted 1.21 PPG from their last 24 home games (7W 8D 9L).
On the road, Jong Ajax have gone 5W 5D 14L from their last 24 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dordrecht are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Jong Ajax are on 1.81 scored and 2.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax in 77%.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
Jong Ajax
Blended
Dordrecht (Home) vs Jong Ajax (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dordrecht
Blended
Jong Ajax
Blended
❓ Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax Form FAQs
What form are Dordrecht and Jong Ajax in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 12W 13D 22L in their last 47 games (1.04 PPG), while Jong Ajax have gone 13W 12D 22L in their last 47 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Jong Ajax away?
Dordrecht's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.21 PPG; Jong Ajax away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to March 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 7 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dordrecht won Dordrecht 4-0 Jong Ajax on 20 Oct 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dordrecht have gone 3W 1D 2L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Jong Ajax — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Dordrecht
3
Draws
3
Jong Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Jong Ajax?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Dordrecht have won 4, Jong Ajax have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Jong Ajax last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 August 2026: Dordrecht 2-1 Jong Ajax.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Jong Ajax?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 50%, Jong Ajax 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Dordrecht and 67% for Jong Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Jong Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dordrecht and Jong Ajax matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Dordrecht's games and 75% of Jong Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Dordrecht and Jong Ajax matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Dordrecht's matches and 67% of Jong Ajax's.
Do Dordrecht and Jong Ajax matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 79% of Jong Ajax's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dordrecht run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Jong Ajax.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat Jong Ajax 4-0 at Matchoholic Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 2.87 xG and Jong Ajax 1.64 xG, a combined 4.50. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Dordrecht beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong Ajax landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.07 / defence 1.14 against Jong Ajax attack 1.05 / defence 1.59, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 63% | Draw 17% | Jong Ajax 20%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 83%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 66% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 60%, Jong Ajax 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong Ajax's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 1.04 PPG, Jong Ajax 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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