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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Dordrecht run riot with a 4-1 hammering of FC Volendam.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dordrecht beat FC Volendam 4-1 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 38, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 2.02 xG and FC Volendam 1.11 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Dordrecht beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.40 / defence 0.71 against FC Volendam attack 1.25 / defence 0.85, drawn from 75/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 58% | Draw 22% | FC Volendam 20%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 59%, FC Volendam 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dordrecht's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

FC Volendam's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dordrecht 1.77 PPG, FC Volendam 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.23 average — above their attacking norm. FC Volendam (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights