Dordrecht 2-2 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dordrecht vs FC OSS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dordrecht and FC OSS meet at Matchoholic Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 38. This fixture gets under way on Friday 19 May 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dordrecht have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Dordrecht's home record at Matchoholic Stadion: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Matchoholic Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
FC OSS (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC OSS's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dordrecht lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2022, ended 1–0 with Dordrecht winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Dordrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
FC OSS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 59% versus FC OSS 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Dordrecht 65% | FC OSS 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.45 xG and FC OSS 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.719 / defence 0.971 | FC OSS attack 0.826 / defence 1.194. League average goals — home 1.687 / away 1.311. Dordrecht's attack strength of 0.719 is below the league average — the 1.45 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 75 Dordrecht games / 75 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 46% | Draw 26% | FC OSS 27%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | FC OSS 3.70. Dordrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dordrecht at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dordrecht if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 20% | FC OSS 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Matchoholic Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 May 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 46% | Draw 26% | FC OSS 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Dordrecht 1.45 / FC OSS 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.719 / def 0.971 | FC OSS attack 0.826 / def 1.194 | league avg home 1.687 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.05
FC OSS xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs FC OSS kick off?
Dordrecht vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 19 May 2023 at Matchoholic Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs FC OSS?
Dordrecht 2 - 2 FC OSS.
Where is Dordrecht vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Matchoholic Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs FC OSS part of?
Dordrecht vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 46% chance of winning, FC OSS a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Dordrecht and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and FC OSS?
Record (3 meetings): Dordrecht 2W | Draws 0 | FC OSS 1W.
What form are Dordrecht and FC OSS in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. FC OSS (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Dordrecht's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against FC OSS's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. Flip it around — FC OSS's attack (0.83x) against Dordrecht's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
46%
2.16
26%
3.80
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.50
1.05
FC OSS xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
16%
6.19
6%
15.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.5 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.05 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 75 outings, Dordrecht have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 19W 16D 40L record — L-W-L-L-D across the most recent five.
FC OSS's form line: 21W 14D 40L from 75 games, 1.03 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for Dordrecht against 1.03 for FC OSS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Dordrecht have posted 1.22 PPG from 37 outings (12W 9D 16L).
On the road, FC OSS have gone 9W 6D 22L from 37 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Dordrecht are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.21 scored and 1.81 conceded.
Last 75 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Current Season
FC OSS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 19W 16D 40L in their last 75 games (0.97 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 21W 14D 40L in their last 75 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or FC OSS away?
Dordrecht's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.22 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC OSS won 3-0 on 28 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dordrecht have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC OSS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Dordrecht
3
Draws
2
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 5, FC OSS have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Dordrecht 2-2 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and FC OSS?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 49%, FC OSS 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Dordrecht) and 62% (FC OSS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht have failed to score in 35% of games; FC OSS in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play FC OSS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 54% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dordrecht vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Dordrecht's matches and 62% of FC OSS's.
Do Dordrecht and FC OSS tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dordrecht and FC OSS share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Matchoholic Stadion, Regular Season - 38, as Dordrecht and FC OSS drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.45 xG and FC OSS 1.05 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. FC OSS outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.72 / defence 0.97 against FC OSS attack 0.83 / defence 1.19, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 46% | Draw 26% | FC OSS 27%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 65%, FC OSS 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
FC OSS's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 0.97 PPG, FC OSS 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC OSS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.