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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dordrecht and FC OSS share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 32, as Dordrecht and FC OSS drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.29 xG and FC OSS 0.97 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. FC OSS outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.87 / defence 0.93 against FC OSS attack 0.72 / defence 0.94, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 44% | Draw 28% | FC OSS 28%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 58%, FC OSS 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dordrecht's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

FC OSS's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dordrecht (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC OSS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.76 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights