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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC Eindhoven defy the odds to beat Dordrecht 3-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Eindhoven beat Dordrecht 3-4 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.38 xG and FC Eindhoven 0.98 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Dordrecht beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Eindhoven outscored their 0.98 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.74 / defence 0.87 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.79 / defence 1.09, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 46% | Draw 28% | FC Eindhoven 26%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual FC Eindhoven win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 58%, FC Eindhoven 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dordrecht's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

FC Eindhoven's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dordrecht 1.61 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Eindhoven win broke the near-deadlock. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights