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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven finished level at 3-3 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 2.19 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.73 xG, a combined 3.92. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Dordrecht beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Eindhoven outscored their 1.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.35 / defence 0.98 against FC Eindhoven attack 1.28 / defence 1.07, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 48% | Draw 23% | FC Eindhoven 30%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 60%, FC Eindhoven 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dordrecht's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

FC Eindhoven's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights