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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Dordrecht run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Emmen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dordrecht beat Emmen 3-0 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.66 xG and Emmen 1.50 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Dordrecht beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Emmen landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.11 / defence 1.02 against Emmen attack 1.13 / defence 0.92, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 41% | Draw 25% | Emmen 34%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 58%, Emmen 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dordrecht's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Emmen's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dordrecht 1.79 PPG, Emmen 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights