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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Dordrecht edge out Den Bosch 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dordrecht beat Den Bosch 3-2 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.72 xG and Den Bosch 1.53 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Dordrecht beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.87 / defence 1.02 against Den Bosch attack 0.97 / defence 1.14, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 42% | Draw 24% | Den Bosch 34%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 58%, Den Bosch 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dordrecht's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Den Bosch's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dordrecht 1.56 PPG, Den Bosch 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Den Bosch (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights