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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Dordrecht run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Den Bosch.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dordrecht beat Den Bosch 4-0 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 2.13 xG and Den Bosch 1.00 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Dordrecht beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Den Bosch landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.31 / defence 0.80 against Den Bosch attack 1.00 / defence 1.00, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 63% | Draw 20% | Den Bosch 17%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 61%, Den Bosch 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dordrecht's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Den Bosch's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.51 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights