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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dordrecht and De Graafschap share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 24, as Dordrecht and De Graafschap drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.95 xG and De Graafschap 1.32 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Dordrecht fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.20 / defence 1.09 against De Graafschap attack 0.94 / defence 1.00, drawn from 61/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 52% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 26%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 58%, De Graafschap 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dordrecht's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

De Graafschap's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dordrecht 1.76 PPG, De Graafschap 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights