🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Dordrecht edge out Cambuur 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dordrecht beat Cambuur 1-0 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 2.21 xG and Cambuur 1.24 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dordrecht fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Cambuur landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.24 / defence 0.86 against Cambuur attack 1.13 / defence 0.99, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 59% | Draw 20% | Cambuur 21%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 62%, Cambuur 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dordrecht's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Cambuur's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dordrecht 1.78 PPG, Cambuur 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights