🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Almere City FC defy the odds to beat Dordrecht 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Almere City FC beat Dordrecht 0-1 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.73 xG and Almere City FC 0.96 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dordrecht fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.89 / defence 0.81 against Almere City FC attack 0.84 / defence 1.10, drawn from 51/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 56% | Draw 24% | Almere City FC 21%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Almere City FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 64%, Almere City FC 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dordrecht's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Almere City FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.70. Form was overturned, with Almere City FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Almere City FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights