Dordrecht 1-1 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Dordrecht at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dordrecht vs ADO Den Haag encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 2 as Dordrecht welcome ADO Den Haag to M-Scores Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 August 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dordrecht stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Dordrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at M-Scores Stadion, Dordrecht have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at M-Scores Stadion.
ADO Den Haag — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. ADO Den Haag have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, ADO Den Haag have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Dordrecht carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Dordrecht have won 1, ADO Den Haag 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Dordrecht in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
ADO Den Haag in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dordrecht 66% and ADO Den Haag 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Dordrecht 58% | ADO Den Haag 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.67 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 1.034 / defence 0.886 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.075 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.378. Data: 39 Dordrecht games / 39 ADO Den Haag games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 44% | Draw 27% | ADO Den Haag 28%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | ADO Den Haag 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dordrecht at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dordrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 40% | ADO Den Haag 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 44% | Draw 27% | ADO Den Haag 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Dordrecht 1.67 / ADO Den Haag 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 1.034 / def 0.886 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.075 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.31
ADO Den Haag xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
Dordrecht vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at M-Scores Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs ADO Den Haag?
Dordrecht 1 - 1 ADO Den Haag.
Where is Dordrecht vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs ADO Den Haag part of?
Dordrecht vs ADO Den Haag is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 44% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Dordrecht and ADO Den Haag will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and ADO Den Haag?
Record (6 meetings): Dordrecht 1W | Draws 3 | ADO Den Haag 2W.
What form are Dordrecht and ADO Den Haag in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. ADO Den Haag (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Dordrecht's attack at 1.03x the league average against ADO Den Haag's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, ADO Den Haag's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
44%
2.27
27%
3.65
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.98
1.31
ADO Den Haag xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
12%
8.42
5%
18.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.1 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.31 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs ADO Den Haag?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dordrecht come into this having played 41 games, going 19W 16D 6L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Dordrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, ADO Den Haag sit at 1.63 PPG from 41 outings (18W 13D 10L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dordrecht on 1.78 PPG, ADO Den Haag on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Dordrecht's home form reads 11W 7D 2L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, ADO Den Haag have taken 1.75 points per game from 20 outings (10W 5D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Dordrecht are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 1.95 scored and 1.49 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; ADO Den Haag in 76%.
Last 41 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Early Season
ADO Den Haag
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 19W 16D 6L in their last 41 games (1.78 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 18W 13D 10L in their last 41 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or ADO Den Haag away?
Dordrecht's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 2.00 PPG; ADO Den Haag away: 1.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dordrecht and ADO Den Haag runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Nov 2021, when ADO Den Haag won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dordrecht's record when hosting ADO Den Haag specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Dordrecht
4
Draws
4
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and ADO Den Haag?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 2, ADO Den Haag have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Dordrecht 1-0 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and ADO Den Haag?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Dordrecht at 55%, ADO Den Haag at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Dordrecht and 75% for ADO Den Haag. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play ADO Den Haag?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Dordrecht's games and 75% of ADO Den Haag's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dordrecht vs ADO Den Haag usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Dordrecht's matches and 75% of ADO Den Haag's.
Do Dordrecht and ADO Den Haag tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, ADO Den Haag in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dordrecht and ADO Den Haag share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 2, as Dordrecht and ADO Den Haag drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.67 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.31 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.03 / defence 0.89 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.07 / defence 0.95, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 44% | Draw 27% | ADO Den Haag 28%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 58%, ADO Den Haag 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 1.78 PPG, ADO Den Haag 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.