🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Den Bosch's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Den Bosch and VVV Venlo finished level at 0-0 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 35, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.96 xG and VVV Venlo 1.19 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Den Bosch fell 2.0 short of their projected output. VVV Venlo landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.96 / defence 0.99 against VVV Venlo attack 0.96 / defence 1.22, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 55% | Draw 22% | VVV Venlo 23%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 57%, VVV Venlo 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Den Bosch's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

VVV Venlo's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.15 PPG, VVV Venlo 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights