🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Den Bosch cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Vitesse.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Den Bosch beat Vitesse 2-0 at De Vliert, Regular Season - 21, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.98 xG and Vitesse 1.62 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Vitesse landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 1.10 / defence 1.03 against Vitesse attack 1.03 / defence 1.02, drawn from 58/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 46% | Draw 22% | Vitesse 32%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 61%, Vitesse 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Den Bosch's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Vitesse's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.39 PPG, Vitesse 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Den Bosch win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Vitesse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights